Inflation expectations, disagreement, and monetary policy

Inflation persistence, inflation expectations, and monetary policy in China

a r t i c l e i n f o This paper constructs a quarterly series of GDP deflator inflation for China from 1979 to 2009 and tests for a structural break with an unknown change point in the dynamic inflation process. Empirical results suggest a significant structural change in inflation persistence. Employing a counterfactual simulation method, we show that the structural change is primarily attrib...

Disagreement about Inflation Expectations

Analyzing 50 years of inflation expectations data from several sources, we document substantial disagreement among both consumers and professional economists about expected future inflation. Moreover, this disagreement shows substantial variation through time, moving with inflation, the absolute value of the change in inflation, and relative price variability. We argue that a satisfactory model...

Consumers’ Inflation Expectations and Monetary Policy in Europe

Inflation Expectations , the Phillips Curve and Monetary Policy

Conjectures about inflation expectations are inextricably linked to our understanding of the relationship between the real and monetary sides of the economy; yet, direct empirical research on the matter has been scarce at best. This paper therefore examines the empirical properties of inflation expectations data constructed on the basis of both qualitative and quantitative surveys of consumers ...

1 Inflation Expectations , Country Risk , and Monetary Policy in Mexico

This paper analyzes the transmission mechanism of monetary policy in an emerging market economy like Mexico. The analysis emphasizes the importance of economic agents’ expectations – mainly inflation expectations and country-risk perception – to understand the effects of monetary policy in emerging market economies. It is shown that both, economic agents’ expectations and the correct identifica...